Revitalizing Trade Dependencies: Analyzing the Influence of the 2018 Mexican Government Transition on Economic Patterns using a Gravity Model and Sector-Specific Indicators

This research paper investigates Mexico’s relationship of political shifts and trade dynamics, focusing on the period of Morena’s governance from 2018 until the present. By employing a Gravity Model and sector-specific trade indicators, this study tries to explore this relationship comprehensively. Utilizing a dataset of 200 million observations on trade flows between Mexico and other countries spanning from 1995 to 2021, the Gravity Model findings reveal a decrease in bilateral trade during Morena’s governance, emphasizing the substantial influence of political factors on trade dynamics. Moreover, sector-specific analyses reveal distinct trade patterns across various sectors of the economy. These results suggest that political changes, in conjunction with economic and sectoral factors, significantly shape trade trends. However, the complex interplay of these variables underscores the need for comprehensive analysis when informing trade policy and economic development. This study contributes valuable insights to the understanding of Mexico’s trade dynamics and the potential impacts of political transitions on international trade relationships.